The Maestro's Movers: Neil Woodford's Big Buys and Sells in July 2015

Stock stalking is a weird hobby.

In general I do not "follow" any particular investor's activities. However, there are a couple that I have followed of sorts because I like their investment style. One of them is Neil Woodford

I watch Woodford's fund quite carefully to get some ideas. In particular, doing this with Woodford is extremely easy as--I am sure many of you know this--he publishes the entire breakdown of his fund each month. A very unusual action.

Since launch I have been assiduously collecting this data and building a little spreadsheet to see how things are changing. I've realised that this work--which is not a tiny amount--may be of interest to some of you.

So here I will offer a little breakdown of the companies that Woodford has bought and sold in July 2015.

Methodology

First, a little on my methodology. Woodford provides two bits of information each month which I use for this:

1. The total value of all the assets in his fund (this month, £6.74 billion);
2. The percentage weight each company has within the fund.

Using this information, I do a couple of things:

1. Work out the value of the company holding (dividing the fund size by the company's weight)
2. Using the share price on the day the snapshot of the fund was taken, I work out how many shares (approximately) Woodford holds in the company.

Now this provides an estimate of his shareholding in each company from month to month. It can then be used to work out what his big movers were during the month.

This is where it may be interesting to you.

Woodford's Big Buys in July

So what companies has Woodford being buying into?

Well, here is a list--according to my estimates--of listed companies that he increased his shareholding in by 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big buys. Those in italics were in last months big sells last month:

1	P2P Global*	LON:P2P	233.15%
2	Idex	NYSE:IEX	73.52%
3	Lancashire	LON:LRE	34.50%
4	Verseon	LON:VSN	28.00%
5	Legal & General	LON:LGEN	27.70%
6	Game Digital	LON:GAME	24.39%
7	Rolls-Royce	LON:RR	24.04%
8	BT	LON:BT.A	23.96%
9	G4S	LON:GFS	21.57%
10	Northwest Biotherapeutics	NASDAQ:NWBO	19.97%
11	Burford Capital	LON:BUR	18.65%
12	Xeros	LON:XSG	13.20%
13	BTG	LON:BTG	12.57%
14	Provident Financial	LON:PFG	8.07%
15	BAE Systems	LON:BA	7.96%
16	AstraZeneca	LON:AZN	7.68%
17	NewRiver Retail	LON:NRR	7.14%
18	Imperial Tobacco	LON:IMT	6.39%
19	4D Pharma	LON:DDDD	6.35%
20	Centrica	LON:CNA	6.05%
21	Next	LON:NXT	5.87%
22	Rightster	LON:RSTR	4.59%
23	Capita	LON:CPI	4.22%
24	Babcock International	LON:BAB	3.79%
25	RM2 International	LON:RM2	3.50%
26	ReNeuron	LON:RENE	3.50%
27	Redde	LON:REDD	3.26%
28	Oxford Pharmascience	LON:OXP	3.00%

*I am a little confused by the P2P Global holding this month. The company is mentioned several times with--as far as I can tell--the same share class. This figure is, therefore, almost certainly drastically incorrect.

Woodford's Big Sells in July

So what companies has Woodford been dropping?

Again, this is a list of those which have dropped at least 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big sells. Those in italics were in last months big buys last month:

1	Royal Mail	LON:RMG	-18.33%
2	Halosource	LON:HALO	-11.69%
3	Midatech Pharma	LON:MTPH	-3.82%
4	Zegona	LON:ZEG	-3.09%
5	e-Therapeutics	LON:ETX	-3.08%

Woodford's Moves 

Quite a month this month. It looks like there has been a lot of purchasing (and little selling) going on. This is little surprise considering the month saw most markets dip markedly.

The most notable changes this month seem to have been in the FTSE 100. Some massive names have seen some massive purchases. Legal & General, Rolls Royce and BT all saw 20% growth in the portfolio. Indeed, in the case of Rolls Royce and Legal & General it appears I echoed Woodford's particular buys this month with two myself.

We also see Woodford beefing up his holding in the FTSE 250 reinsurer, Lancashire, after a 15% growth in June with another 34% growth in July.

On the sell front, the most striking sale was that of Royal Mail. it is most likely no coincidence that the ex-dividend day and payment date came in July.

Some Caveats

Obviously, as with everything on this site, this list is not meant to be advice on what to buy (or sell). Also, these figures are all created from different levels of estimated data. 

The weightings are rounded as is the fund value. Share holdings are therefore estimations rather than certain figures and--as a consequence--my calculations on their changes are not supposed to be seen as 100% accurate. Of course, at this final stage (that is, the write-up) there is also an additional rounding of the percentage changes.

Also, because of the way I collate the data it does mean that full sales of holdings will likely be missed. If you notice any, give me a heads up in the comments section below. For example, this month the Essentra position appears to have been sold out of.

Finally, remember this is an open-ended fund and so has cash flowing in and out of it constantly. As a result, for those companies Woodford particularly favours--if he wishes to keep them at a similar weighting--then each month would show a growth in his shareholding in them. what this means for the true nature of the purchase (confidence, consistency, or whatever) is up to you!

As usual, Do Your Own Research (DYOR)!

What do you think?

What do you think of some of Woodford's big movers? Did you make similar purchases/sells in July? Has the list got you thinking about any of the companies listed?

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[Image reproduced from Woodford Investment Management]