The Maestro's Movers: Neil Woodford's Big Buys and Sells in October 2015

Stock stalking is a weird hobby.

In general I do not "follow" any particular investor's activities. However, there are a couple that I have followed of sorts because I like their investment style. One of them is Neil Woodford

I watch Woodford's fund quite carefully to get some ideas. In particular, doing this with Woodford is comparatively easy as--I am sure many of you know this--he publishes the entire breakdown of his fund each month. Very unusual, but also very interesting.

Since launch I have been assiduously collecting this data and building a little spreadsheet to see how things are changing. I've realised that this work--which is not a tiny amount--may be of interest to some of you.

So here I will offer a little breakdown of the companies that Woodford has bought and sold in October 2015.

Methodology

First, a little on my methodology. Woodford provides two bits of information each month which I use for this:

1. The total value of all the assets in his fund (this month, £7.67 billion);
2. The percentage weight each company has within the fund.

Using this information, I do a couple of things:

1. Work out the value of the company holding (dividing the fund size by the company's weight)
2. Using the share price on the day the snapshot of the fund was taken, I work out how many shares (approximately) Woodford holds in the company.

Now this provides an estimate of his shareholding in each company from month to month. It can then be used to work out what his big movers were during the month.

This is where it may be interesting to you.

Woodford's Big Buys in October

So what companies has Woodford been buying into?

Well, here is a list--according to my estimates--of listed companies that he increased his shareholding in by 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big buys. Those in italics were in last months big sells last month:

1	Theravance Biopharma	NASDAQ:TBPH	1273.03%
2	RM2 International	LON:RM2	83.80%
3	AbbVie	NYSE:ABBV	58.51%
4	Netscientific	LON:NSCI	44.16%
5	Game Digital	LON:GAME	39.97%
6	Idex	NYSE:IEX	32.44%
7	Allied Minds	LON:ALM	32.11%
8	Northwest Biotherapeutics	NASDAQ:NWBO	27.22%
9	AA	LON:AA	25.57%
10	BTG	LON:BTG	10.51%
11	Alkermes	NASDAQ:ALKS	9.50%
12	IP	LON:IPO	8.59%
13	Provident Financial	LON:PFG	7.21%
14	Roche	VTX:ROG	6.56%
15	Xeros	LON:XSG	6.47%
16	Halosource Reg S	LON:HALO	6.14%
17	Vernalis	LON:VER	5.89%
18	Synairgen	LON:SNG	4.67%
19	NewRiver Retail	LON:NRR	4.62%
20	Drax	LON:DRX	4.44%
21	Babcock International	LON:BAB	3.49%
22	Legal & General	LON:LGEN	3.47%
23	AstraZeneca	LON:AZN	3.13%
24	Revolymer	LON:REVO	3.09%

For listed new entries, Woodford also opened a new position in Hostelworld (LON:HSW) with its IPO.

Woodford's Big Sells in October

So what companies has Woodford been dropping?

Again, this is a list of those which have dropped at least 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big sells. Those in italics were in last months big buys last month:

1	Zegona	LON:ZEG	-39.88%
2	Raven Russia	LON:RUS	-4.13%
3	Reynolds American	NYSE:RAI	-3.51%

Woodford's Moves 

As with the last few months, Woodford has been buying quite widely but selling very narrowly.

The biggest sale was that Zegona which--after building up the stake of late--he nearly halved this month. Surprisingly, tobacco giant Reynolds American has seen a modest drop as well. However, this may be a product of calculation as it is close to my 3% error buffer.

Woodford's purchases last month were also heavily small-cap and pharma focused. The top buys are surprisingly light on large- or mega-cap companies compared to previous months.Some familiar names appear (AstraZeneca, Legal & General, Babcock, AA etc.) but they are chiefly smaller top-ups. Several other staple top-ups (for instance, GSK and BAE Systems) are missing this month.

The new addition of Hostelworld is very interesting. I will be investigating further. They appear to generate copious amounts of cash and plan to return 70 to 80% of profits to shareholders. If this comes true, HSW will be a very attractive income stock. 

Some Caveats

Obviously, as with everything on this site, this list is not meant to be advice on what to buy (or sell). Also, these figures are all created from different levels of estimated data. 

The weightings are rounded as is the fund value. Share holdings are therefore estimations rather than certain figures and--as a consequence--my calculations on their changes are not supposed to be seen as 100% accurate. Of course, at this final stage (that is, the write-up) there is also an additional rounding of the percentage changes.

Also, because of the way I collate the data it does mean that full sales of holdings will likely be missed. If you notice any, give me a heads up in the comments section below. For example, this month the Essentra position appears to have been sold out of.

Finally, remember this is an open-ended fund and so has cash flowing in and out of it constantly. As a result, for those companies Woodford particularly favours--if he wishes to keep them at a similar weighting--then each month would show a growth in his shareholding in them. what this means for the true nature of the purchase (confidence, consistency, or whatever) is up to you!

As usual, Do Your Own Research (DYOR)!

What do you think?

What do you think of some of Woodford's big movers? Did you make similar purchases/sells in October? Has the list got you thinking about any of the companies listed?

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[Image reproduced from Woodford Investment Management]