The Maestro's Movers: Neil Woodford's Big Buys and Sells in June 2015

Stock stalking is a weird hobby.

In general I do not "follow" any particular investor's activities. However, there are a couple that I have followed of sorts because I like their investment style. One of them is Neil Woodford

I watch Woodford's fund quite carefully to get some ideas. In particular, doing this with Woodford is extremely easy as--I am sure many of you know this--he publishes the entire breakdown of his fund each month. A very unusual action.

Since launch I have been assiduously collecting this data and building a little spreadsheet to see how things are changing. I've realised that this work--which is not a tiny amount--may be of interest to some of you.

So here I will offer a little breakdown of the companies that Woodford has bought and sold in June 2015.

Methodology

First, a little on my methodology. Woodford provides two bits of information each month which I use for this:

1. The total value of all the assets in his fund (this month, £6.14 billion);
2. The percentage weight each company has within the fund.

Using this information, I do a couple of things:

1. Work out the value of the company holding (dividing the fund size by the company's weight)
2. Using the share price on the day the snapshot of the fund was taken, I work out how many shares (approximately) Woodford holds in the company.

Now this provides an estimate of his shareholding in each company from month to month. It can then be used to work out what his big movers were during the month.

This is where it may be interesting to you.

Woodford's Big Buys in June

So what companies has Woodford being buying into?

Well, here is a list--according to my estimates--of listed companies that he increased his shareholding in by 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big buys. Those in italics were in last months big sells last month:

1. NewRiver Retail--New holding
2. Circassia--84.3%
3. Paypoint--38.4%
4. Homeserve--29%
5. Lancashire--15.1%
6. Next--14.2%
7. Oxford Pharmascience--14%
8. Halosource--12.9%
9. Centrica--8%
10. Imperial Tobacco--6.8%
11. SSE--5.4%
12. AstraZeneca--4.9%
13. Zegona--4.4%
14. Reynolds American--4.4%
15. Northwest Biotherapeutics--3.7%
16. BTG--3.2%

Woodford's Big Sells in June

So what companies has Woodford been dropping?

Again, this is a list of those which have dropped at least 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big sells. Those in italics were in last months big buys last month:

1. Rightster--17.5%
2. Revolymer--8.3%
3. Game Digital--7.1%
4. Horizon Discovery--5.1%
5. e-Therapeutics--4.6%
6. NetScientific--4.4%
7. G4S--4.2%
8. Imperial Innovations--3.8%
9. Utilitywise--3.6%
10. Drax--3%

Woodford's Moves 

As usual we see some familiar names in the growth list this month. Imperial Tobacco, Centrica, AstraZeneca, Next, BTG and beyond all reappear.

Interestingly, we have three companies which were on the big sells list last month but on the big buys list this time around. Most notable here is HaloSource which has turned a 9% fall in May to a 12.9% growth in June. PayPoint's massive jump this month is particularly striking (however, it must be noted that last month it only dropped 3% which is pretty much bang on my "not statistically important" point).

From my portfolio perspective I am interested to see Woodford adding heavily--15.1%--to his stake in speciality reinsurer, Lancashire. I suspect this is because they are set to provide results later this month which--quite likely--will include another hefty special dividend. I myself have been tempted to top up my position in them over the last couple of months.

All in all, a very interesting list.

Some Caveats

Obviously, as with everything on this site, this list is not meant to be advice on what to buy (or sell). Also, these figures are all created from different levels of estimated data. 

The weightings are rounded as is the fund value. Share holdings are therefore estimations rather than certain figures and--as a consequence--my calculations on their changes are not supposed to be seen as 100% accurate. Of course, at this final stage (that is, the write-up) there is also an additional rounding of the percentage changes.

Also, because of the way I collate the data it does mean that full sales of holdings will likely be missed. If you notice any, give me a heads up in the comments section below.

Finally, remember this is an open-ended fund and so has cash flowing in and out of it constantly. As a result, for those companies Woodford particularly favours--if he wishes to keep them at a similar weighting--then each month would show a growth in his shareholding in them. what this means for the true nature of the purchase (confidence, consistency, or whatever) is up to you!

As usual, Do Your Own Research (DYOR)!

What do you think?

What do you think of some of Woodford's big movers? Did you make similar purchases/sells in May? Has the list got you thinking about any of the companies listed?

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[Image reproduced from Woodford Investment Management]