Monday 11 April 2016

The Maestro's Movers: Neil Woodford's Big Buys and Sells in February 2016

Stock stalking is a weird hobby.

In general I do not "follow" any particular investor's activities. However, there are a couple that I have followed of sorts because I like their investment style. One of them is Neil Woodford

I watch Woodford's fund quite carefully to get some ideas. In particular, doing this with Woodford is comparatively easy as--I am sure many of you know this--he publishes the entire breakdown of his fund each month. Very unusual, but also very interesting.

Since launch I have been assiduously collecting this data and building a little spreadsheet to see how things are changing. I've realised that this work--which is not a tiny amount--may be of interest to some of you.

So here I will offer a little breakdown of the companies that Woodford has bought and sold in February 2016.

Methodology

First, a little on my methodology. Woodford provides two bits of information each month which I use for this:
  1. The total value of all the assets in his fund (this month, £8.28 billion);
  2. The percentage weight each company has within the fund.
Using this information, I do a couple of things:
  1. Work out the value of the company holding (dividing the fund size by the company's weight)
  2. Using the share price on the day the snapshot of the fund was taken, I work out how many shares (approximately) Woodford holds in the company.
Now this provides an estimate of his shareholding in each company from month to month. It can then be used to work out what his big movers were during the month.

This is where it may be interesting to you.


Woodford's Big Buys in February

So what companies has Woodford been buying into?

Well, here is a list--according to my estimates--of listed companies that he increased his shareholding in by 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big buys. Those in italics were in last months big sells last month:

1
Phoenix Spree Deutschland
LON:PSDL
345.05%
2
Sphere Medical
LON:SPHR
100.00%
3
Imperial Innovations
LON:IVO
80.70%
4
Beazley
LON:BEZ
50.65%
5
Stobart
LON:STOB
35.18%
6
VPC Specialty Lending C
LON:VSLC
24.74%
7
Rightster
LON:RSTR
20.23%
8
Synairgen
LON:SNG
18.47%
9
Revolymer
LON:REVO
17.96%
10
Halosource Reg S
LON:HALO
16.70%
11
Idex
NYSE:IEX
15.81%
12
Roche
VTX:ROG
14.22%
13
AstraZeneca
LON:AZN
13.69%
14
Alkermes
NASDAQ:ALKS
12.94%
15
Reynolds American
NYSE:RAI
11.42%
16
Legal & General
LON:LGEN
10.88%
17
Prothena
NASDAQ:PRTA
10.70%
18
Imperial Brands
LON:IMB
10.50%
19
Provident Financial
LON:PFG
9.68%
20
British American Tobacco
LON:BATS
9.59%
21
Hiscox
LON:HSX
9.09%
22
Paypoint
LON:PAY
8.49%
23
BCA Marketplace
LON:BCA
7.97%
24
ReNeuron
LON:RENE
7.05%
25
Netscientific
LON:NSCI
6.97%
26
Circassia
LON:CIR
6.47%
27
GlaxoSmithKline
LON:GSK
6.16%
28
Horizon Discovery
LON:HSD
5.84%
29
VPC Specialty Lending
LON:VSL
4.69%
30
Tissue Regenix
LON:TRX
4.60%
31
Crystal Amber
LON:CRS
4.49%
32
IP
LON:IPO
4.49%
33
Theravance Biopharma
NASDAQ:TBPH
3.71%
34
Hvivo
LON:HVO
3.65%
35
Hostelworld
LON:HSW
3.35%
36
BAE Systems
LON:BA
3.10%

Woodford's Big Sells in February

So what companies has Woodford been dropping?

Again, this is a list of those which have dropped at least 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big sells. Those in italics were in last months big buys last month:

1
Drax
LON:DRX
-19.04%
2
Next
LON:NXT
-16.90%
2
Benchmark
LON:BMK
-16.57%
3
Game Digital
LON:GMD
-14.17%
4
Midatech Pharma
LON:MTPH
-12.46%
5
e-Therapeutics
LON:ETX
-11.44%
6
RM2 International
LON:RM2
-8.55%
7
P2P Global
LON:P2P
-8.14%
8
NewRiver Retail
LON:NRR
-7.49%
9
Purplebricks
LON:PURP
-7.43%
10
Redde
LON:REDD
-7.38%
11
Breedon Aggregates
LON:BREE
-6.16%
12
4D Pharma
LON:DDDD
-6.14%
13
Vernalis
LON:VER
-5.77%
14
Xeros
LON:XSG
-5.15%
15
Lancashire
LON:LRE
-4.92%
16
Babcock International
LON:BAB
-3.85%
17
Mercia Technologies
LON:MERC
-3.66%
18
Spire Healthcare
LON:SPI
-3.51%
19
Cranswick
LON:CWK
-3.21%
20
Utilitywise
LON:UTW
-3.11%

Some Caveats

Obviously, as with everything on this site, this list is not meant to be advice on what to buy (or sell). Also, these figures are all created from different levels of estimated data. 

The weightings are rounded as is the fund value. Share holdings are therefore estimations rather than certain figures and--as a consequence--my calculations on their changes are not supposed to be seen as 100% accurate. Of course, at this final stage (that is, the write-up) there is also an additional rounding of the percentage changes.

Also, because of the way I collate the data it does mean that full sales of holdings will likely be missed. If you notice any, give me a heads up in the comments section below. For example, this month the Essentra position appears to have been sold out of.

Finally, remember this is an open-ended fund and so has cash flowing in and out of it constantly. As a result, for those companies Woodford particularly favours--if he wishes to keep them at a similar weighting--then each month would show a growth in his shareholding in them. what this means for the true nature of the purchase (confidence, consistency, or whatever) is up to you!

As usual, Do Your Own Research (DYOR)!

What do you think?

What do you think of some of Woodford's big movers? Did you make similar purchases/sells in February? Has the list got you thinking about any of the companies listed?


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[Image reproduced from Woodford Investment Management]

4 comments:

  1. I think AZN is a great one to pick up. It has good long-term potential.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Apologies for the late reply. Yes, AZN looks a great long-term pick. A reader recently sent me a detailed analyst breakdown of their pipeline potential. The experts seem very excited about it. From my (admittedly more crude method see: http://bit.ly/27aWq8E) method they also look amongst the best. Very encouraging indeed!

      Delete
  2. When will your next update be?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, DivHut. My apologies, I have them all but done yet I had forgotten to "press play" so to speak as I was away from the middle of March. Will be (hopefully) with you all shortly! Sorry for the delay!

      Delete