The Maestro's Movers: Neil Woodford's Big Buys and Sells in January 2016

Stock stalking is a weird hobby.

In general I do not "follow" any particular investor's activities. However, there are a couple that I have followed of sorts because I like their investment style. One of them is Neil Woodford

I watch Woodford's fund quite carefully to get some ideas. In particular, doing this with Woodford is comparatively easy as--I am sure many of you know this--he publishes the entire breakdown of his fund each month. Very unusual, but also very interesting.

Since launch I have been assiduously collecting this data and building a little spreadsheet to see how things are changing. I've realised that this work--which is not a tiny amount--may be of interest to some of you.

So here I will offer a little breakdown of the companies that Woodford has bought and sold in January 2016.

Methodology

First, a little on my methodology. Woodford provides two bits of information each month which I use for this:

1. The total value of all the assets in his fund (this month, £8.02 billion);
2. The percentage weight each company has within the fund.

Using this information, I do a couple of things:

1. Work out the value of the company holding (dividing the fund size by the company's weight)
2. Using the share price on the day the snapshot of the fund was taken, I work out how many shares (approximately) Woodford holds in the company.

Now this provides an estimate of his shareholding in each company from month to month. It can then be used to work out what his big movers were during the month.

This is where it may be interesting to you.

Woodford's Big Buys in January

So what companies has Woodford been buying into?

Well, here is a list--according to my estimates--of listed companies that he increased his shareholding in by 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big buys. Those in italics were in last months big sells last month:

1	Non-Standard Finance	LON:NSF	198.17%
2	Rightster	LON:RSTR	143.82%
3	Crystal Amber	LON:CRS	58.46%
4	AbbVie	NYSE:ABBV	27.38%
5	Prothena	NASDAQ:PRTA	25.88%
6	Drax	LON:DRX	23.67%
7	NewRiver Retail	LON:NRR	22.01%
8	Benchmark	LON:BMK	21.75%
9	Xeros	LON:XSG	21.01%
10	Next	LON:NXT	20.40%
11	Oxford Pharmascience	LON:OXP	16.04%
12	Alkermes	NASDAQ:ALKS	15.32%
13	G4S	LON:GFS	14.81%
14	Paypoint	LON:PAY	13.08%
15	Theravance Biopharma	NASDAQ:TBPH	12.56%
16	4D Pharma	LON:DDDD	11.90%
17	Vernalis	LON:VER	10.88%
18	Redde	LON:REDD	10.64%
19	Purplebricks	LON:PURP	10.31%
20	P2P Global	LON:P2P	9.60%
21	RM2 International	LON:RM2	8.87%
22	Phoenix Spree Deutschland	LON:PSDL	8.70%
23	Circassia	LON:CIR	8.64%
24	e-Therapeutics	LON:ETX	8.44%
25	AA	LON:AA	7.99%
26	Utilitywise	LON:UTW	7.57%
27	Lancashire	LON:LRE	6.21%
28	Legal & General	LON:LGEN	6.16%
29	Game Digital	LON:GMD	5.75%
30	Midatech Pharma	LON:MTPH	5.70%
31	Babcock International	LON:BAB	5.62%
32	Breedon Aggregates	LON:BREE	5.04%
33	Mercia Technologies	LON:MERC	4.29%
34	Abzena	LON:ABZA	4.24%
35	Netscientific	LON:NSCI	4.24%
36	Spire Healthcare	LON:SPI	3.37%
37	Northwest Biotherapeutics	NASDAQ:NWBO	3.17%
38	P2P Global C	LON:P2P	3.16%
39	Capita	LON:CPI	3.09%
40	Burford Capital	LON:BUR	3.04%

Woodford's Big Sells in January

So what companies has Woodford been dropping?

Again, this is a list of those which have dropped at least 3% or more. Those in bold were not in last months list of big sells. Those in italics were in last months big buys last month:

1	Idex	NYSE:IEX	-20.50%
2	VPC Specialty Lending C	LON:VSL	-18.24%
2	Imperial Innovations	LON:IMB	-15.00%
3	Synairgen	LON:SNG	-13.17%
4	Imperial Tobacco (now Brands)	LON:IMB	-9.09%
5	Reynolds American	NYSE:RAI	-8.43%
6	BT	LON:BT.A	-7.99%
7	GlaxoSmithKline	LON:GSK	-7.74%
8	Revolymer	LON:REVO	-7.73%
9	British American Tobacco	LON:BATS	-5.93%
10	Horizon Discovery	LON:HSD	-5.33%
11	Allied Minds	LON:ALM	-4.28%
12	Tissue Regenix	LON:TRX	-3.61%
13	Hvivo	LON:HVO	-3.30%
14	Stobart	LON:STOB	-3.09%
15	BCA Marketplace	LON:BCA	-3.07%

Woodford's Moves 

January was a particularly fascinating month. perhaps the most striking for me were two of his sales: Imperial Tobacco (now Imperial Brands) and GlaxoSmithKline. Both are huge and long-standing holdings both for Woodford and myself.

Yet he trimmed positions in both quite noticeably.

Of course, they have been on a bit of a share price run of late which likely pushed him to sell down his take a little. Presumably, he now considers them near to being overpriced. It will be interesting to see whether he starts rebuilding the positions in the future. 

Some Caveats

Obviously, as with everything on this site, this list is not meant to be advice on what to buy (or sell). Also, these figures are all created from different levels of estimated data. 

The weightings are rounded as is the fund value. Share holdings are therefore estimations rather than certain figures and--as a consequence--my calculations on their changes are not supposed to be seen as 100% accurate. Of course, at this final stage (that is, the write-up) there is also an additional rounding of the percentage changes.

Also, because of the way I collate the data it does mean that full sales of holdings will likely be missed. If you notice any, give me a heads up in the comments section below. For example, this month the Essentra position appears to have been sold out of.

Finally, remember this is an open-ended fund and so has cash flowing in and out of it constantly. As a result, for those companies Woodford particularly favours--if he wishes to keep them at a similar weighting--then each month would show a growth in his shareholding in them. what this means for the true nature of the purchase (confidence, consistency, or whatever) is up to you!

As usual, Do Your Own Research (DYOR)!

What do you think?

What do you think of some of Woodford's big movers? Did you make similar purchases/sells in January? Has the list got you thinking about any of the companies listed?

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[Image reproduced from Woodford Investment Management]